A recent survey conducted by Fitch Solutions, a renowned research and data firm, indicated that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) is expected to win over the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP) in Ghana’s general elections on December 7.
On July 13, 2024, during the Mid-Year Review for Sub-Saharan Africa, Associate Director of Country Risk at Fitch Solutions, Mike Kruiniger, predicted that John Mahama, the NDC’s presidential candidate, would receive 54% of the vote.
“We believe that the opposition NDC has a stronger chance of winning the upcoming general elections compared to the ruling NPP. Recent polls consistently place the NDC ahead with the most recent survey showing 54 % of respondents favoring the NDC,” Kruiniger said
The firm’s analysis also suggested that the electorate’s concerns about the economy will play a key role in shaping the outcome of the elections.
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“In addition, multiple surveys have shown that economic management and job creation are going to be the most important issues during the election for voters which we believe will put the ruling NPP at a disadvantage given the economic challenges that the country has faced over the last couple of years,” he added.
As to whether a new regime can make a change in the economy, Kruiniger said a change in government is unlikely to significantly impact Ghana’s economic policy direction.
“In terms of what a government change will mean for the economy, we think that policy direction under a likely NDC government will not largely change,” he said.
Kruiniger further noted that, given the NDC’s historical commitment to international agreements, they are likely to maintain Ghana’s IMF program if elected, thereby ensuring policy continuity.
“The NDC will most likely stick to Ghana’s IMF programme, particularly as the party has shown commitment in the past to international agreements and obligations. We expect policy continuation in Ghana despite a likely government change,” he added.
Fitch Solutions has maintained a consistent stance in its forecasts regarding Ghana’s elections and economic outlooks.
