The government would borrow about GH¢180 billion via treasury bills in 2024. This will be 21% more than GH¢149.92 billion raised in 2023.
The estimated maturities are GH¢150 billion, a growth of 28.0% over that of last year.
The government is also expected to raise more than 50.0% of the GH¢61.9 billion budget deficit through treasury bills.
Indeed, treasury bills are set to remain the dominant driver of activity on the Ghana Fixed Income Market.
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“We believe domestic investors could remain skewed towards shorter-dated Government of Ghana securities to manage risk exposure, blurring the hope for any bond issuance”, Databank Research intimated.
Yield expected to decline in 2024
Yields are expected to decline on a positive inflation outlook, but upside pressures will persist from the government’s high demand for money market funding.
“We believe the momentum of yield decline will continue to face headwinds, as our T-bill forecast of GH¢180bn is substantial to keep upside pressures elevated. Upside risk to yields will continue to support the upward trend in refinancing pressures, as we expect the maturing obligations to average GH¢2.88 billion per week in 2024, up by 28% compared to 2023”, Databank Research said.
T-bills mostly oversubscribed in 2023
Treasury bills were mostly oversubscribed in the weekly auction in 2023 as investors maintained firm demand for short-term investments to reduce risk exposure.
Investors submitted total bids of GH¢149.92 billion, exceeding the combined target of GH¢133.71 billion, while matured bills in 2023 totalled GH¢117.61 billion.
