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OPINION: Scrutiny of Musah Dankwah’s Recent Polling Analysis on Ejisu By-Election

These concerns suggest a potential risk to the credibility of the poll results, calling into question the accuracy of the data and the conclusions drawn by Mr Dankwah and his team.

Musah Dankwah’s latest polling results, conducted in Ejisu Constituency, present concerns about the integrity of the polling process and the veracity of the data presented. The polls covered 19 electoral areas and involved 1,351 respondents.

Detailed Concerns Include:

i. The data was gathered by four field officers over just four days, during which each officer interviewed approximately 84, on average, individuals daily. This rapid pace suggests a potential compromise in data quality, exacerbated by the logistical pressures of moving swiftly from one area to another. Such hurried data collection could undermine the credibility of the poll results.

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ii. The structure and phrasing of the questionnaire might have led respondents toward certain perceptions about the government or candidates, potentially skewing the results.

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iii. The poll was focused on respondents aged 35-64+ (66% of the sample) who may not adequately represent the broader electoral demographic, particularly younger voters who are crucial to capturing the full spectrum of public opinion.

iv. The report was notably prepared and dated on the last polling day, April 25th, suggesting a rapid turnaround. Additionally, the margin of error reported at 3.42% does not seem reflective of the size and diversity of the sample.

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v. The projection of 16% of floating voters swinging to an opposition candidate in a stronghold of the NPP (where margins typically range between 80-82%) is highly unusual and contradicts established voting trends.

vi. Musah also omitted to mention to his listeners that according to his polls, 69% approve of the current government, while 56% have acknowledged improvements in their lives. Additionally, 63% indicated that completed and ongoing projects would influence them to vote for the NPP. This would suggest a positive outlook if his polls are to be believed. However, this scenario contradicts Dankwah’s poll results, which forecast the NPP receiving only 50.6% of the vote compared to 47.5% for the independent candidate. If 69% approve of the government and 56% feel their lives have improved, it is puzzling how this translates to just 50.6% support for the incumbent. This discrepancy highlights the statistical inconsistencies in Musah Dankwah’s team’s analysis.

vii. It is also evident that Musah Dankwah made errors in his average findings for the two candidates. According to his report, which aggregates the percentages from all 19 electoral areas, the NPP received 49.16% of the votes, not the 50.6% he had predicted. Similarly, the NDC garnered 48.6% of the votes, contradicting his prediction of 47.5%. These discrepancies raise serious credibility issues with his findings.

These concerns suggest a potential risk to the credibility of the poll results, calling into question the accuracy of the data and the conclusions drawn by Mr Dankwah and his team. Given the discrepancies and methodological concerns highlighted, stakeholders and the public must approach these findings with caution.

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